青藏高原及邻区未来地震活动性趋势数值分析          下载免费PDF全文

董培育  石耀霖  程惠红  乔学军 《地球物理学报》2020,63(3):1155-1169

区域中长期地震危险性数值分析研究,需要对其初始构造应力场有所了解,但目前以及未来一段时期内仍无法直接观测到深部孕震层区域的应力场状况.本文首先基于岩石库仑-摩尔破裂准则,利用青藏高原及邻区百年历史范围内的强震信息,来反演估算该区域的初始应力场.然后,考虑区域构造应力加载及强震造成的应力扰动共同作用,重现了历史强震的发展过程.然而对于初始应力场的反演估算,本文仅能给出区域其上下限的极限值,并不能唯一确定.因此,采用Monte Carlo随机法,进行大量独立的随机试验计算,生成数千种有差异的区域初始应力场模型,且保证每种模型都能令历史强震有序发生,但未来应力场演化过程不尽相同.最后,将数千种模型在未来时间段内的危险性预测结果集成为数理统计结果,据此给出了区域未来的地震危险性概率分布图.初步结果显示未来强震危险性概率较高地区集中在巴颜喀拉块体边界及鲜水河断裂带地区.  相似文献   

Riverine large wood and recreation safety: A framework to discretize and contextualize hazard     

Will Conley  Natalie Kramer 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2020,45(9):2201-2216

The importance of large wood (LW) to riverine functions is well established scientifically and increasingly recognized by river managers in many countries. However, public perceptions largely associate LW with elevated danger and/or need for intervention. Such perspectives are amplified amongst recreational river users (defined here as any individuals that recreate by floating on the water surface of a river) who interact more directly with rivers than the general public and commonly view wood in life-or-death terms. Given that human life occupies a highest-order charge for river managers, they are left in a difficult position when safety appears to conflict with environmental services. LW deficits are perpetuated partly because wood removal, often in the name of safety, is far easier than placing wood in rivers. Further, river restoration practitioners are frequently burdened with expectations and liability unparalleled in built environments. A fundamentally different mindset is necessary to achieve desired ecologic outcomes when working with rivers. Based on two decades of experience as boaters, LW practitioners, and emergency responders, we (1) discuss LW hazard and risk from recreational and management viewpoints, (2) discretize objective and measurable physical properties of LW hazards, and (3) propose a decision framework that implicitly addresses risk by considering LW hazards relative to river use and ambient hazards. The approach is structured to increase objectivity in LW hazard mitigation and diminish asymmetric biases that favor LW removal. Our intent is to build understanding and rational flexibility among risk-averse management, regulatory, and funding entities to facilitate implementation of scientific understanding without undue risk to river users. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

基于国家海洋治理和全球气候变化的我国海洋灾害防治          下载免费PDF全文

齐庆华 《海洋开发与管理》2019,36(2):17-23

为建立和完善现代化的海洋灾害防治体系,提高我国海洋治理和应对全球气候变化的能力,文章以全球治理和国家治理为背景,在明确致灾因子、承灾体、灾害以及灾害风险和管理等基本概念及其内涵的基础上,分析全球气候变化背景下我国海洋灾害及其风险的特征以及海洋灾害防治的关键性和基础性科学问题,并提出我国构建海洋灾害防治体系的建议。研究结果表明:在全球气候变化的影响下,我国沿海地区的海洋灾害风险复杂多变且有所提升;提出以群-环-域为主体的体系架构,研究全球气候变化与区域海洋的响应和反馈、全球气候变化背景下海洋灾害与风险的特征和规律以及综合海洋灾害风险评估和海洋灾害防治等问题;在我国构建海洋灾害防治体系的过程中,应加强科学研究以及技术和信息支撑、促进区域和全球联动联防以及提高全社会对海洋灾害的认知和防范水平。  相似文献   

Responding to Global Warming: Mitigation Policies and Actions of Stakeholders in China’s Tourism Industry     

FENG Ling  CHEN Da  GAO Shan  WANG Yongzhi  TANG Chengcai 《资源与生态学报(英文版)》2019,10(1):94-103

China’s tourism industry has witnessed rapid progress in recent years, and is now an important part of global tourism in dealing with climate change. Within a framework of Pressure-State-Response (PSR), this paper focuses on the emission reduction pressure, carbon emission status, and responses of stakeholders in China’s tourism industry. Findings include: 1) The central government’s strategy and rapid growth of the industry scale exert rising pressure on China’s tourism to reduce carbon emissions. 2) Carbon emissions of China's tourism account for 13%-14.6% of global tourism, and about 3% of China’s emissions overall. Chinese tourists’ per capita carbon emission is lower than half of the global level. 3) The Chinese government attaches great importance to energy-saving and carbon emission reduction. In the tourism industry, documents, standards and other regulative measures have been issued to ensure that business practitioners set up green operational and managerial systems. In the field of tourism transportation, China's high-speed rail, new energy vehicles, and urban shared bicycles, have developed very rapidly in recent years, and they have effectively reduced the carbon emissions in traveling. Furthermore, this paper finds that Chinese tourists already have awareness and willingness for low-carbon tourism.  相似文献   

Forests and floods: Using field evidence to reconcile analysis methods     

James C. Bathurst  Barry Fahey  Andrés Iroumé  Julia Jones 《水文研究》2020,34(15):3295-3310

The extent to which forests, relative to shorter vegetation, mitigate flood peak discharges remains controversial and relatively poorly researched, with only a few significant field studies. Considering the effect purely of change of vegetation cover, peak flow magnitude comparisons for paired catchments have suggested that forests do not mitigate large floods, whereas flood frequency comparisons have shown that forests mitigate frequencies over all magnitudes of flood. This study investigates the apparent inconsistency using field-based evidence from four contrasting field programmes at scales of 0.34–3.1 km². Repeated patterns are identified that provide strong evidence of real effects with physical explanations. Magnitude and frequency comparisons are both relevant to the impact of forests on peak discharges but address different questions. Both can show a convergence of response between forested and grassland/logged states at the highest recorded flows but the associated return periods may be quite variable and are subject to estimation uncertainty. For low to moderate events, the forested catchments have a lower peak magnitude for a given frequency than the grassland/logged catchments. Depending on antecedent soil saturation, a given storm may nevertheless generate peak discharges of the same magnitude for both catchment states but these peaks will have different return periods. The effect purely of change in vegetation cover may be modified by additional forestry interventions, such as road networks and drainage ditches which, by effectively increasing the drainage density, may increase peak flows for all event magnitudes. For all the sites, forest cover substantially reduces annual runoff.  相似文献   

2016年新疆呼图壁6.2级地震前b值异常特征研究   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

刘子璇  冯建刚  王维桐 《地震工程学报》2020,42(1):150-156

利用2009年以来中国地震台网中心地震编目资料,以2016年新疆呼图壁6.2级地震作为研究对象,采用最大似然法进行b值空间扫描计算,获取震前震中及其邻区地震b值的空间图像。研究结果显示,2016年呼图壁6.2级地震发生在震前显著低b值区域,该异常特征可能反映了地震孕育的应力积累过程,印证了b值的物理意义。  相似文献   

How do machine learning techniques help in increasing accuracy of landslide susceptibility maps?     

《地学前缘(英文版)》2020,11(3):871-883

Landslides are abundant in mountainous regions.They are responsible for substantial damages and losses in those areas.The A1 Highway,which is an important road in Algeria,was sometimes constructed in mountainous and/or semi-mountainous areas.Previous studies of landslide susceptibility mapping conducted near this road using statistical and expert methods have yielded ordinary results.In this research,we are interested in how do machine learning techniques help in increasing accuracy of landslide susceptibility maps in the vicinity of the A1 Highway corridor.To do this,an important section at Ain Bouziane(NE,Algeria) is chosen as a case study to evaluate the landslide susceptibility using three different machine learning methods,namely,random forest(RF),support vector machine(SVM),and boosted regression tree(BRT).First,an inventory map and nine input factors were prepared for landslide susceptibility mapping(LSM) analyses.The three models were constructed to find the most susceptible areas to this phenomenon.The results were assessed by calculating the receiver operating characteristic(ROC) curve,the standard error(Std.error),and the confidence interval(CI) at 95%.The RF model reached the highest predictive accuracy(AUC=97.2%) comparatively to the other models.The outcomes of this research proved that the obtained machine learning models had the ability to predict future landslide locations in this important road section.In addition,their application gives an improvement of the accuracy of LSMs near the road corridor.The machine learning models may become an important prediction tool that will identify landslide alleviation actions.  相似文献   

Physico-chemical,bacteriological and health hazard effect analysis of the water in Taladanda Canal,Paradip area,Odisha, India          下载免费PDF全文

Rabiranjan Prusty  Trinath Biswal 《地下水科学与工程》2020,8(4):338-348

The physico-chemical and bacteriological parameters of the water in Taladanda canal and associated water-borne diseases,from which the dwellers have suffered,were studied,by using statistical method. Overuse and the addition of the wastes with sources from urbane industrial sectors,as well as the decrease in water level have caused the canal water quality declined drastically and subsequently led to extensive eutrophication and bacterial contamination. According to the water sample analytical results,the water is lightly acidic with the pH value of 4.5~6.7. The measured indexes,such as total dissolved solid (TDS),electrical conductivity (EC),total suspended solid (TSS),Mn,Zn,Al,Fe,Cu,Cr,and Hg etc,mostly have very high concentrations which are higher than permissible limit,indicating that the canal water is completely unsuitable for human consumption. Furthermore,the biological analysis shows that the total coliform (TC) is in the range of 45.9~30.2 in per 100 mL water in April,30.5~25.3/100 mL in July and 52.9~35.4/100 mL in December,respectively. Similarly,fecal coliform (FC) ranges from 12.8 to 10.1,10.5~7.5 and 13.1~6.4 per 100 mL water in the months of April,July and December respectively. As a result,people who use the water have suffered from different water-borne diseases. On the basis of disease data derived from hospital observations in a period of three years,there had been 4 284 people affected by different water-borne diseases from 2016 to 2018.  相似文献   

Investigating potential future changes in surface water flooding hazard and impact     

Alison C. Rudd  Alison L. Kay  Steven C. Wells  Timothy Aldridge  Steven J. Cole  Elizabeth J. Kendon  Elizabeth J. Stewart 《水文研究》2020,34(1):139-149

Surface water flooding (SWF) is a recurrent hazard that affects lives and livelihoods. Climate change is projected to change the frequency of extreme rainfall events that can lead to SWF. Increasingly, data from Regional Climate Models (RCMs) are being used to investigate the potential water-related impacts of climate change; such assessments often focus on broad-scale fluvial flooding and the use of coarse resolution (>12 km) RCMs. However, high-resolution (<4 km) convection-permitting RCMs are now becoming available that allow impact assessments of more localised SWF to be made. At the same time, there has been an increasing demand for more robust and timely real-time forecast and alert information on SWF. In the UK, a real-time SWF Hazard Impact Model framework has been developed. The system uses 1-km gridded surface runoff estimates from a hydrological model to simulate the SWF hazard. These are linked to detailed inundation model outputs through an Impact Library to assess impacts on property, people, transport, and infrastructure for four severity levels. Here, a set of high-resolution (1.5 km and 12 km) RCM data has been used as input to a grid-based hydrological model over southern Britain to simulate Current (1996–2009) and Future (~2100s; RCP8.5) surface runoff. Counts of threshold-exceedance for surface runoff and precipitation (at 1-, 3- and 6-hr durations) are analysed. Results show that the percentage increases in surface runoff extremes, are less than those of precipitation extremes. The higher-resolution RCM simulates the largest percentage increases, which occur in winter, and the winter exceedance counts are greater than summer exceedance counts. For property impacts, the largest percentage increases are also in winter; however, it is the 12-km RCM output that leads to the largest percentage increase in impacts. The added-value of high-resolution climate model data for hydrological modelling is from capturing the more intense convective storms in surface runoff estimates.  相似文献   

西昌市泸山地区典型火后泥石流特征与成因机制研究——以响水沟左岸3^#支沟为例     

铁永波  徐如阁  刘洪  王家柱  巴仁基  向安平  杨剑  欧阳渊  张玙  王宏 《中国地质调查》2020,7(3):82-88

2020年3月30日,四川省凉山州西昌市经久乡发生森林大火,山火燃烧后形成的山火灰和烧焦土体在强降雨作用下极易启动形成泥石流,给西昌市泸山、琼海景区生态环境及当地百姓生命财产安全带来潜在地质灾害风险。以西昌市安哈镇响水沟左岸3^#支沟为例,采用野外调查、无人机航拍、地球物理探测、现场及室内实验等手段,对2020年5月1日该沟发生的火后泥石流流体特征、动力学参数及成因机制等开展研究,系统分析了山火及降雨过程对该次火后泥石流形成的影响机制。该成果可为系统认识西昌泸山“3·30”山火地区火后泥石流的运动特征、物源规模、激发雨量及其发展趋势研判提供科学参考。  相似文献